So Who's the Favorite?

After listening to the Golf Central crew Saturday night, I thought I'd see who Masters history says is most likely to win today.

GC furnished several stats, maximum of which I cannot recollect precisely! But as I remember, one of these stats says the winner comes from the final institution approximately seventy two% of the time. Clearly, that could be either Justin Rose or Sergio Garcia.

At some point within the beyond -- I can't remember while or where -- I heard that the winner almost always comes from one of the two very last groups. In that case, we can add Rickie Fowler and Jordan Spieth to the list.

Some commentators say it's the Top5. That could upload Ryan Moore and Charley Hoffman to the list. And I can see that, as Moore and Hoffman are tied with Spieth. If Spieth has a risk, so need to the other .

But how far back is too far? The three players in fourth place are at -4, only two shots off the lead. Is three shots too far back? Four? Five? There are only ten players under par, so let's add:

• Adam Scott three back at -3
• Charl Schwartzel four back at -2
• Lee Westwood and Thomas Pieters five back at -1

I don't see how it could go much farther back UNLESS the lead group -- perhaps the three lead groups -- fall back. Not very likely, in my opinion.

So wherein will we draw the road?

An interesting article at golfdigest.com might help. Called Masters 2017: Is 'Moving Day' at Augusta a myth or a reality? , it has a couple of interesting facts about how eventual winners perform in the THIRD round. It says:

The average function of eventual champions after 36 holes is three.95, with it improving to 2.28 after 54 holes. The average 0.33-round score of eventual winners is 70.19, and the average wide variety of strokes picked up on the lead (or having the lead growth) is 1.16 strokes.

According to this stat, the eventual winner starts the third round around FOURTH place, and enters the final round around SECOND... and to make that move, they shoot around 70 and gain one stroke relative to the lead.

Of course, stats are nothing but numbers, and while it may be true that "numbers never lie," it's also true that numbers mean nothing until they are interpreted... and interpretations lie all the time!

And none of these numbers match what has happened this week. (Okay, Sergio shot 70 in the third round, but that's as far as it goes.) So I've decided to chuck the historical stats. Instead, here's my take on how this plays out.

I do not see all the leaders struggling today, so it's likely a stretch for all and sundry more than 3 strokes lower back to win. That offers us SEVEN capacity winners, with Adam Scott (-3) being the long shot. Of those seven players, ONLY ONE PLAYER HAS BEEN UNDER PAR EACH ROUND.

• In addition, that player has more pars and fewer bogeys (or worse) than his closest competition.
• And despite these numbers -- which indicate playing safe -- he's still made enough birdies to compete.

Believe it or not, that player is Sergio Garcia .

Folks, we simply would possibly see history made today. That's all I'm pronouncing.