Finally!

After a year of listening to crunched numbers we're going to finally get a FedExCup champion. And, ironically, it could be less difficult than we predicted. Let's have a look at the potentialities...

First off, I think it's secure to say that handiest 3 of the Top 5 nonetheless "manage their own destinies." With Phil Mickelson again at 2 and Nick Watney playing on any other golfing direction, it is not likely that either of those 2 will win the Tour Championship outright. That leaves Rory, Tiger, and Sneds... And those three are in appropriate position. Sneds leads, Rory's 3 returned, and Tiger's four lower back -- all very attainable.

Will considered one of them truely win the tournament? That stays to be visible. Bubba Watson (#11) and Jim Furyk (#18) are three back with Rory; Kuchar (#sixteen), Van Pelt (#19) and Garrigus (#20) are four lower back with Tiger. Zach Johnson (#9) and Luke Donald (#15) are 5 again. Nobody else is closer than 7 back.

Scorewise, we have seen 64s and one sixty five this week, so I actually have hassle seeing a sixty three or 62 available... And I also have problem believing any individual close to the lead may not submit a 67 or sixty eight. In different phrases, I doubt everyone extra than five returned can win... And 4 lower back might be stretching it.

Of direction, I have not referred to Justin Rose (#24) or Ryan Moore (#28), who're tied for the lead and a couple of lower back, respectively. They can clearly win the event, I just don't consider they could win the FedExCup... And you don't need to be a math wizard to look why.

Here's a brief, no-strain lesson on how the factors paintings. The factors at the start of the week for the Top 10 gave the look of this:

1. McIlroy 2500
2. Woods 2250
3. Watney 2000
4. Mickelson 1800
5. Snedeker 1600
6. Oosthuizen 1400
7. D. Johnson 1200
8. Westwood 1000
9. Z. Johnson 800
10. Dufner 600

The points drop off from there. For our purposes, I'll just mention that Justin Rose has 270 points and Ryan Moore has 230.

The points offered to the Tour Championship's Top 10 look like this:

1. 2500
2. 1500
3. 1000
4. 750
5. 550
6. 500
7. 450
8. 425
9. 400
10. 375

Here's an example of how the Top 5 control their destinies. We'll let Sneds win and Rory come in second. Sneds gets 4100 points (1600 + 2500) and Rory gets 4000 points (2500 +1500), so Rory comes in 100 points behind Sneds and loses the Cup to him.

You don't need a degree in algebra to read the writing on this wall, do you? Even if you win the tournament, winning the Cup is incredibly hard if you started the week outside the Top 8. That's Westwood (who's dead last this week, unfortunately); with a win he would have 3500 points (1000 + 2500). As long as none of the players ahead of him finish second or third, the Cup is his. I realize that's dreadfully oversimplified -- I'm basically looking at the highest Rory can finish and still have fewer points than the tournament winner -- but that's the easiest way to understand it.

The highest-ranked players outside the Top 5 with a decent chance to win are Bubba (3 back) and Zach (5 back). Wins would give Bubba 2980 points (480 + 2500) or Zach 3300 points (800 + 2500). How low do we think Rory and Tiger are going to finish? That's the real question... and I have trouble believing both of them will finish outside the Top 4.

So, barring flame-outs through Tiger, Rory, AND Sneds, one of these 3 will probably be the FedExCup winner. Right now, my cash's on Sneds to win all of it. I suppose he is gambling nicely enough to hold on to the lead.

At any rate, at least today we will eventually get a solution.