Tommy Two Gloves, a Statistical Analysis

One of the players preventing for his Tour card as we head down the stretch in Tommy ?Two Gloves? Gainey. He is currently ranked 104th at the Money List and even more disconcerting, 170th in Adjusted Scoring Average. Last 12 months he finished thirty fifth on the Money List and 88th in Adjusted Scoring Average.

In reality, right here?S what I wrote about Gainey in the 2011 Pro Golf Synopsis:

Quote:

There are some similarities between Gainey and (Rickie) Fowler and as I stated before, I find them to be two of the best players without a PGA Tour victory.

So, what?S occurring with ?Two Gloves?? First, allow?S take a look at his rankings:

Category????????2012???..........?2011

Advanced Total Driving??.111???????..Seventy seven

Putts Gained.??????.A hundred and ten???????..Seventy eight

Short Game Play?????162???????.159

Birdie Zone???????Seventy seven???????.151

Safe Zone???????146???????.Seventy one

Danger Zone??????Seventy eight???????...64

There are a few metrics that stand out, but I need to go over them earlier than we delve similarly.

I?M positive some will see the dip in Putts Gained, but Putts Gained is through a ways and away the most ?Unstable? Metric I use. Meaning, it can trade dramatically from one week to the following. Last week Gainey turned into ranked 99th and now he?S a hundred and tenth. If he has a quite top tourney with the flatstick, he can without difficulty be on the ranking he become last season. I would be more involved if the difference in rating became 50 points or greater right now of the 12 months. But because it?S nevertheless pretty near, I wouldn?T worry an excessive amount of approximately it.

While I?M a massive believer in the Danger Zone play for Tour gamers, the difference between 78th and 64th would handiest equate to a minute difference in Adjusted Scoring Average and cash earned. So I wouldn?T examine an excessive amount of into that in the mean time.

What?S interesting even though are his ratings in Advanced Total Driving, Birdie Zone and Safe Zone play.

He?S significantly progressed in Birdie Zone play (pictures from 75-125 yards). Last 12 months it changed into a weak point for him and I believe in the course of the offseason he labored on photographs from this distance. It?S a actual not unusual subject from the Tour gamers, caddies and coaches I?Ve labored with, every of them speak approximately looking to be an elite wedge participant. But as Gainey suggests, it?S frequently a very hyped up part of the sport, some thing I pointed out in 2011 Pro Golf Synopsis.

There are 2 massive motives for Birdie Zone pictures being overvalued.

1. The penalty for a ?Terrible? Shot with the aid of a Tour participant is alternatively small and the best Birdie Zone players best common hitting the shot to about sixteen feet, where the make percentage is still fairly low. In other words, put the first-rate vs. The worst Birdie Zone players together and the distinction of their final ratings will be smaller than Safe Zone and Danger Zone pictures.

2. It?S the least frequently hit Zone shot in line with round on Tour.

The Safe Zone (pictures from 125-one hundred seventy five yards) is the maximum often hit region on Tour. However, it falls at the back of the Danger Zone in phrases of significance due to the fact the Danger Zone is the region that is the second most frequently visited through Tour players and the penalty is an awful lot greater severe.

So in terms of shot attempts according to round, it is going in order of:

1. Safe Zone

2. Danger Zone

three. Birdie Zone

And there?S a great drop-off in frequency between Danger Zone and Birdie Zone.

In terms of variations in Expected Score values from exceptional to worst, it goes:

1. Danger Zone

2. Safe Zone

three. Birdie Zone

And of path, as far because the correlation to Adjusted Scoring average, it additionally is going:

1. Danger Zone

2. Safe Zone

three. Birdie Zone

SAFE ZONE PROFILES

There is a correlation between a player?S percentage of photographs inside the Safe Zone that come from the fairway or tee container and their Safe Zone talent. With ?Bomb and gouging? Being all the rage, the Tour nonetheless indicates that to some extent, hitting fairways is essential. Particularly on the subject of how well you'll play from the Safe Zone.

With that, golfers who're suffering from the Safe Zone have a tendency to run into 1 or 2 areas:

1. Hitting too excessive of a percent of their shots in the Safe Zone from the tough (in preference to fairway or tee field).

2. Just a lack of ability of hitting those photographs regardless if they are from the green/tee container or the rough.

ADVANCED TOTAL DRIVING

In Gainey?S case, he?S gone from a participant who became greater or much less ?Above common? Off the tee in 2011 and is now ?Beneath average? Off the tee this season. My Advanced Total Driving metric is a proprietary formulation that factors in:

1. Driving Distance

2. Fairway Percentage

three. Average Distance from Edge of Fairway on tee pictures that land up in the difficult.

Driving Distance – Gainey went from 46th in driving distance last year (296.7 yards) to 25th in driving distance this year (298.6 yards). When looking at driving distance, it’s better to look at the *ranking* than the yardage to get a more accurate idea of the player’s driving distance. I like to think of this along the same lines as Putts Gained, while an improvement of 21 spots on the ranking is better than no improvement, I would have to see an improvement of 50+ spots to really see a difference.

Fairway Percentage – Here’s where we start seeing a difference as Gainey went from hitting 58.97% (130th) in 2011 to 53.47% (160th) in 2012. Last year he hit 822 fairways (out of 1,394 attempts). This year he would be on pace to hit 745 fairways. In a world where the difference in 100 ranking spots in Scoring Average can be less than 1 stroke, the drop in fairways hit is hurting Gainey’s game.

Distance To Edge of Fairway – Here’s where we see an even bigger discrepancy as Gainey has gone from 92nd in this metric to 150th.

And having looked at his radar metrics (membership speed, ball speed, spoil issue, release angle, spin, and so forth), they're actually same. In essence, he?S simply extra wild with the motive force this year.

So that explains the dip in his Advanced Total Driving metric, but does it give an explanation for his Safe Zone woes?

Not precisely.

He?S genuinely hitting a lower percentage of his Safe Zone pictures from the green or tee container. In 2011, 73.5% of his Safe Zone shots got here from the fairway or tee box. That was 151st highest percentage on Tour. But this year he's hitting sixty nine.0% of his Safe Zone shots from the fairway or tee field, 171st on Tour.

And right here?S a study his rankings from the Safe Zone distances out of the hard and the fairway/tee container:

Distance?........??2011???..2012

125-a hundred and fifty (rgh)???35?????Ninety one

a hundred twenty five-a hundred and fifty (fwy)???33????..112

a hundred and fifty-175 (rgh)???A hundred and fifteen????.150

a hundred and fifty-a hundred seventy five (fwy)???63?????.83

So part of Gainey?S Safe Zone troubles also are flat out worse execution from the Safe Zone. He?S seen a huge drop-off in his fairway pictures from 125-one hundred fifty yards and a drop-off in his pictures from the green at one hundred fifty-one hundred seventy five yards.

Still, his tough play is even greater worrisome and he?S had even larger declines from that vicinity. I assume that what is happening is he?S hitting extra shots off the grid and similarly away from the golf green and he?S having greater trouble from the tough and hitting more shots from the difficult, which isn't always an awesome combination.

IMO, the way to steady his Tour card for this season is to cognizance at the riding accuracy and consistency. That will prevent those massive wide variety scores which could make him pass over cuts, not make any money and positioned him at the back of the eight-ball. It can even help with his talent from the Safe Zone and continue to assist him from the Danger Zone, which he?S shown to be fairly properly skilled at. But it does cross to expose you how you misleading the idea of enhancing wedge play can be to a participant?S game.

3JACK