A Statistical Examination of the US Ryder Cup Team

With the Ryder Cup coming at the quit of the month, I wanted to do a top level view of each participant at the US Team, their strengths and weaknesses and what formats I see them excelling in with certain teammates.

First, I think this has the makings of a outstanding Ryder Cup. I assume the American facet in all fairness sturdy or even better than the ?08 crew, which gained at Valhalla. Furthermore, outside of Bubba Watson, no different participant on the American crew is higher than 68th in Putts Gained. Meanwhile, the European team has Graeme McDowell, Justin Rose and Rory McIlroy, all wearing high-quality metrics this y ear. Luke Donald?S iron recreation has suffered, however he?S nevertheless as exact as absolutely everyone with the flatstick and has progressed his iron play. Plus, it seems that Sergio is returned.

Generally, I think the American group has more depth, but while Rory is playing well he appears clearly unstoppable and the Euros have superb Ryder Cuppers like Sergio and Luke Donald. I ought to see Olazabal relying closely on McDowell, Sergio, Donald and Rory to benefit the bulk of their factors and leading the Europeans to victory. Lastly, at the same time as Medinah isn't the most exciting course to watch on TV, I suppose if the climate holds up it'll be perfect for the Ryder Cup due to the fact we don?T should fear approximately a unique design adversely affecting one group. Plus, the Chicago crowd ought to be into it.

FOURBALL FORMAT

In the Fourball layout, this is composed of each participant gambling their personal ball and the team?S score is represented by means of the participant with the lowest rating. This is regularly referred to as ?High-quality ball? Or ?Low rating? Layout.

Unfortunately, the sample length of statistics is limited in terms of the Ryder Cup because the earliest ShotLink information goes returned to is 2004 and not all the data even is going returned that a long way. But from what I had been able to investigate in conjunction with my own interpretation of the statistics, the better Fourball groups usually have golfers that excel on par-four?S and par-5?S along with have a terrific rate of birdies and bogey avoidance.

I assume it plays out that way because your normal golf course has 10 par-4?S, 4 par-five?S and four par-3?S. Thus, it?S easy to see why par-4 play is so important?There are more par-4?S on a typical golf direction thant here are par-three?S AND par-5?S, combined. I think par-5 play is essential because that?S wherein you run into birdie and eagle possibilities. And on average, the Tour birdies par-three?S approximately 12-13% of the time. But , they birdie or eagle par-five?S approximately 40-forty five% of the time. Thus, par-three play does now not seem to rely within the Fourball format because it?S typically a hole that Tour gamers will now not birdie very often and among the 2 Tour gamers who were true enough to make the Ryder Cup, they need to commonly come away with par.

As a ways as birdie and bogey prices go, I suppose captains emphasize birdie prices an excessive amount of. While it?S truly crucial within the Fourball format, you still want players who can expand every hollow and pressure their opponent to win the hollow rather than them dropping the hollow. Here is my statistical rankings, so as, of the fine to worst Fourball format players at the US team.

1. Bubba Watson

2. Jason Dufner

3. Tiger Woods

four. Webb Simpson

five. Steve Stricker

6. Dustin Johnson

7. Brandt Snedeker

8. Matt Kuchar

nine. Zach Johnson

10. Phil Mickelson

eleven. Keegan Bradley

12. Jim Furyk

That being stated, I assume that outdoor of Furyk, each player seems to be a very capable to splendid Fourball player. Furyk?S trouble is that he?S 161st in birdie or better price and 64th in par-5 scoring common.

However, I do trust that there are a few combinations that paintings from a psychological perspective inside the Fourball format. Much just like the ?08 tandem of Boo Weekley and JB Holmes. Weekley is a perennial top driving force of the ball on Tour who not only hits it as it should be, however very long off the tee as well. Holmes is often referred to as the longest participant on Tour. In the ?08 Ryder Cup, the duo might have Weekley tee off first and blast power after pressure over 300 yards down the center. And if Weekley turned into in suitable form (which he normally turned into), that would allow Holmes a unfastened rip and he turned into automatically blasting drivers 375 yards. From a mental attitude, you can see it put on on negative Lee Westwood who become being outdriven by using Weekley and if Holmes could maintain the ball in play, he would be as much as 100 yards at the back of his tee shot.

From that angle, even Furyk isn't always a horrible bet in the Fourball layout if he?S paired with a golfer who can make lots of birdies. Somebody like Keegan Bradley, who I even have 2d to ultimate on the list, may want to paintings well with Furyk in a Fourball format as Bradley is 2d in birdie rate, 5th in par-five scoring common, 1st in par-3 scoring average (Furyk?S 2d weakest metric) and is an high-quality driver of the ball (14th in ATD). With Keegan?S total driving and Furyk?S extremely good balance and bogey avoidance (2nd), they are able to nonetheless make an powerful pairing within the Fourball layout.

To me, the first day pairings are maximum important. I?M now not precisely certain if they may start out with the Fourball layout suits or the Foursome (alternate shot) matches. I might tend to go together with the philosophy of getting the younger, green gamers go off the in first series of suits. I suppose this helps get the jitters out of the manner and I might be a touch leery of an older player having the intellectual and bodily stamina to play 2 matches on the first day. Furthermore, I might need the experienced players to be in the 2d round of suits because if the team receives off to a slow begin in the first spherical of suits, I think revel in might be helpful in no longer having the teams push too hard to try to make up misplaced ground.

FOURSOME FORMAT

The foursome format is regularly known as the ?Exchange shot? Format or every so often the ?Scotch Twosome? Format. This format is easy, one participant hits a shot and then the alternative participant hits the subsequent shot. And they do that throughout the entire spherical

I get the sensation that most golfers think that metrics are not applicable in the Foursome layout as always in each Ryder Cup, I see players who ?Get along? Or are from the same wellknown region paired up for that. As Billy Beane once said ?Desire isn't a strategy.?

I suppose that the foursome format is where metrics are even MORE crucial to have a look at. For instance, I assume it would be a terrible pairing to place a participant who struggles from the difficult, like Zach Johnson, with a participant who misses a variety of fairways like Phil Mickelson. I would as a substitute see a tandem of gamers whose strengths and weaknesses blend well collectively. The difference here is that the metrics I?M extra concerned with are actual overall performance with exceptional types of clubs rather than performance close to scores on a golfing holes. I additionally have a tendency to choose putting and quick sport play within the Foursome layout. Players are certain to screw up and also you want that participant who can hit a short-sided pitch near or keep the crew with an eight-footer.

One team I suppose might be sturdy is the duo of Jason Dufner and Webb Simpson. Simpson has dominate the Tour from the fairway this 12 months, end 4th, 3rd and 37th in pictures from the green within the Birdie, Safe and Danger Zones. Simpson?S troubles this year were off the tee as he?S 84th in fairway % and 102nd in distance to the brink of the golf green. So a companion like Dufner, who's 18th in fairway % and has performed very well from the tough this yr should be a very good suit. You could also take Simpson with Stricker, although I suppose Stricker and Tiger might be an amazing in shape based totally entirely on their metrics. And in view that they have got revel in collectively, it is able to be worth a shot.

DAY 1 RECOMMENDED PAIRINGS

I?M assuming that the Fourball (low-rating) layout could be the first to head off and the afternoon fits will the Foursome (trade shot) layout.

Fourball Pairings

Bubba & Tiger – Ranked #1 and #3 in my best suited players for Fourball. Weak spot is that Bubba is traditionally a terrible par-3 player and this year is no different as he ranks 162nd in par-3 scoring average. However, Tiger is ranked 23rd in par-3’s and their par-4 and par-5 play is superior. And while I don’t make this a big consideration, they do play a lot of practice rounds together. I would recommend that Tiger tee off first and allow Bubba to hit his bombs when Tiger is in good position.

Jason Dufner & Webb Simpson – Ranked #2 and #4 in my Fourball power rankings. They don’t have a glaring weakness in this format and should make a lot of birdies. I also want these two together for the Foursome format in the afternoon, so I might as well have them play together in the morning.

Brandt Snedeker & Dustin Johnson – I want Snedeker out on day one because he’s a great putter who has been riding a hot streak with the putter and I want to see if he can get the team some momentum early on and then see if I can ride him later on. DJ is a big-time player and young. He also has been playing well lately. He’s another player that can fit into the Foursome format and if he’s playing well early on, I would not mind having him play all day.

Matt Kuchar & Keegan Bradley – I have a good feeling that Keegan Bradley is a good fit in the Ryder Cup. He continually shows up for big tournaments, he’s a great total driver of the ball and he can putt pretty well. The big key is that if you took a ‘best score’ scoring average for the year, this team would be 1st in par-3 scoring average (Bradley), 5th in par-4 scoring average (Kuchar), and 5th in par-5 scoring average (Bradley). And that’s with Bradley being 2nd in birdie percentage and Kuchar 6th in bogey avoidance.

Foursome Pairings

Jason Dufner & Webb Simpson – I would like to think that this is a top pairing that I would want to use again for the reasons stated. I think when Dufner is driving the ball, this team would be tough given how adept Simpson is with his irons from the fairway. And even if Simpson misses, Dufner is ranked #2 in Adjusted Short Game play. The only thing that concerns me a little is that Dufner has never been known as a great putter. He’s ranked 68th in Putts Gained right now. But, I think that I would take Dufner putting from a much shorter distance than a European player putting from a longer distance, even if it’s Luke Donald.

Tiger Woods & Steve Stricker – I think that Simpson and Stricker could be a better team, but you have to make some room for Tiger. Tiger’s issues this year have been shots from the rough from both the Safe and Danger Zones. Keep him in the fairway and he’s deadly. While Stricker isn’t the greatest driver in the world (75th in Advanced Total Driving), he does hit it fairly accurate. He’s also dominated from the rough this year. So Stricker can keep Tiger in the fairway and if the longer Woods hits the fairway he’ll put the deadly Stricker in great shape. If he misses the fairway, you have the current best player from the rough this year still hitting the shot.

Bubba Watson & Phil Mickelson – I know, Mickelson is not exactly the ideal foursome player. Neither is Bubba. But together they may just work because as wild as Mickelson is off the tee, Watson can recover with crazy shots as well. Plus, I don’t like the idea of having some players not get into the action on day one. On day one, I would want to see a little from everybody and then determine who the hot hands are for the rest of the tournament. While Phil may be better suited for Fourball play, this year his putting (6th) and Short Game (48th) may be too good to pass up in this situation.

Jim Furyk & Zach Johnson –Johnson may be better suited in Fourball format, but Furyk is not (I really wish they would have selected Bo Van Pelt instead) and I don’t want to veterans going into the next day cold. They both play a similar type of game and have both putted well and have had a good year with their short game.

Tomorrow, I will do something on the Europeans.

3JACK