This past Sunday we had this notorious exchange heard on NBC among Matt Every and his caddie about what choice to make (NSFW).
Every become stuck in a precarious role at the 16th hole. He had a tree in part blocking his shot and there is water in the front of the inexperienced. Here?S a diagram of the sixteenth hollow at Bay Hill:
Every is one of the most competitive gamers on Tour. Last yr he ranked thirteenth in my Tee Shot Aggressiveness ranking which measures the projected quantity of times the golfer lays up off the tee on par-4?S and par-five?S. He become also 3rd in Par-5 aggressiveness which measures the proportion of times the golfer Goes for the Green in 2 shots compared to their distance off the tee.
Generally, the numbers paintings in the player?S favor to be competitive off the tee (from a driver vs. Lay-up angle ONLY) and on the par-five?S. And I should see Every?S considering going for it here because the sixteenth hollow is a birdie hole that performed to handiest a 4.425 scoring average this past week. So the idea of no longer getting the ball on the green and now not making par will be a 2-stroke swing.
However, the bigger trouble for Every is that due to the fact he turned into hitting his third shot right here, a shot inside the water could offer large harm to his chances of triumphing. That?S the component about being competitive in going for the inexperienced on par-5?S (and even at the tee on a few short par-four?S); if you turn out to be inside the water you can still drop and save the par. But in Every?S state of affairs if he goes in the water par is absolutely out of play and now he is calling extra at making a double bogey.
Every?S caddie states that in the event that they simply lay-up and placed it in the fairway they will ?Rise up-and-down 75% of the time.? Well, let?S take a look at the numbers on that.
Every decided to punch out and hit his shot to 89 yards within the fairway.
Here?S a look at Every?S numbers for the yr:
On shots from 75-100 yards from the fairway: 17’0” Avg. Proximity to the Cup.
Total Putting from 15-20 feet: 32.39%
However, we ought to consider that was for a par putt. And Tour players typically make a higher percentage of par putts than birdie putts.
So far this year, Every is 5 for 12 ( 41.7% ) from 15-20 feet on par & bogey putts.
Therefore, the reality is that his odds of getting up and down were at 41.7% instead of 75% given the shot he had hit. Unfortunately it was all taken out of play when he hit that 89 yard shot from the fairway to 25 feet which greatly reduced his odds.
In the end, Every I feel that the data supports Every’s decision to lay-up, regardless of Every going on to victory. Making double bogey on a hole where the majority of golfers made birdie or eagle would have greatly hurt his odds of winning. And since he had made 42% of his par/bogey putts from 15-20 feet for the year, he had more than a puncher’s chance of getting up-and-down by putting the ball in the fairway from 75-100 yards.
This is a typical risk vs. reward strategy in golf. Every and his caddie had the risk and reward percentages skewed and were inaccurate when it comes to the actual probabilities. However, they understood what double bogey meant on a hole where golfers were likely to score low.
3JACK
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