The Numbers Behind Going For It and Laying Up on #10 at Riviera

This time of yr is while possibly the maximum arguable hollow on Tour is performed, the tenth hollow at Riviera. (click any of the snap shots to amplify)

It is recorded at 315 yards, however this is as a substitute beneficiant as you are playing from an increased tee and usually some thinner air. Essentially, every single participant within the field may have the space to power this hole.

And many turn out to be hitting it nicely beyond the hole. The PGA Tour even tweeted the following:

? Since 2003, gamers attempting to drive the inexperienced had been a mixed 467 below par. Players who layed up were a blended 21 beneath par

? Since 2012, 933 players have hit their approach shot from interior 75 yards. Only fifty nine.8% have determined the inexperienced.

? Approach photographs from the left fairway have a 70% danger of hitting the inexperienced. Approach shots from the proper fairway have a fifty three% danger of hitting the inexperienced.

? From 2003-2014, Aaron Baddeley has the satisfactory scoring average at #10, in forty four rounds he is 10 below par

? Since 1983, Fred Couples has made the most birdies at #10 (34)

? Since 2003, only one participant has hit their tee shot interior 6 feet of the hole. In 2013, Greg Owen hit it to 11 inches.

Yesterday, I recorded the pictures and the rankings on #10 and here is what I got:

Going For It = 4.130 scoring average

Laying Up = 4.222 scoring average

So, given that considering 2003, gamers going for the inexperienced performed it at a combined 467 beneath par versus the lay-up gamers being at 21 under par AS WELL AS the going for it scoring common being lower on Thursday than the laying up scoring average....They must go for this green, right?

Furthermore, sixty seven.Five% of the players LAYED-UP the day before today as opposed to 32.Five% went for the inexperienced.

So, the players must be ignorant for not expertise they need to pass for the green, proper?

Well, not precisely.

***

The first factor the Tour ignores is that the hollow layout has modified a little considering 2011. So, it's now not quite fair to throw out the numbers of going for the inexperienced versus laying up considering 2003. It is probably first-rate to examine these numbers in 2012 on the grounds that they made alterations to the hole at some point of this time.

But the a long way larger problem is the pin location.

Yesterday's pin area become all of the way in again. And I could assume it to be in a comparable location on Sunday.

But what those facts do no longer tell you is how near these gamers had been hitting it to the hollow:

Laying Up = Average 2nd Shot of 23.8 feet to the hole

Going For It = Average 2nd shot of 29.6 feet to the hole

That means that gamers laying up had been hitting their approach photographs 20% towards the hollow than if they went for the inexperienced.

Furthermore, look at the birdie charges:

Laying Up = 20%

Going For It = 18.5%

So, why did the 'Go For It' institution of gamers have a decrease scoring average if their methods had been in addition from the hole?

The most important cause is that the Go For It players just came about to putt and hit their bunker shots properly on #10 yesterday.

The different purpose is that there had been a few abnormal players that just fell apart like Justin Leonard who turned into in first rate function with seventy nine yards in the left fairway...And came away with a 7. And Leonard has been one of the quality on Tour from 75-125 yards (Green Zone) over the years.

The foremost issue with laying up yesterday is that there has been a tailwind and that helped company up the vegetables and additionally reduced the spin at the technique shot.

Many golfers did what Will Zalatoris did. They hit their tee shot in appropriate position by way of laying up left. They then hit an method that became going at the flag, however traveled too a ways and deposited into the rear bunker.

Still, the numbers imply that laying up whilst the pin is placed inside the returned is the BETTER play. The motive why the gamers that went for the green could not get their approach pictures closer on common is because the bunkers left of the green block the shot and if you leave out inside the right bunker, it's a very destructive function as nicely.

Here's how Angel Cabrera performed it which turned into the principle topic as to why the Go For It players have been able to have a lower scoring common than the lay up gamers:

Cabrera actually hit a pretty decent drive, but it went a little too far and was blocked off by the bunkers and had no choice but to chip one to the middle of the green, leaving himself with a slick 30-foot downhill birdie putt. He just happened to make the putt.

Anybody that has read Pro Golf Synopsis or has talked to me knows that I don't favor laying up. But when the pin is in the back pin location the better play is to lay-up off the tee. Keep it left of the right edge of the left fairway bunker, leave yourself about 75-100 yards in the fairway and allow the ball to spin and hold the green. While the scoring average happened to be lower for those going for the green on Thursday, in the end when the sample size gets larger, it should bear out that the scoring average will favor the lay-up strategy.

With that being said, the pin location is in the middle of the inexperienced nowadays and need to be a front pin area on Saturday and that is while players ought to pass for the green and that is why the players which have long past for the green general have scored some distance higher on #10 over the years.

3JACK

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